An introduction to the analysis of the state championship

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An introduction to the analysis of the state championship

This article will talk about the current state of the competitive scene of Hearthstone and suggest ways that it can improve. If you ever ask a seasoned competitive Hearthstone player how to get into the scene, most will reply with a short answer: You might think that people are joking, or even half-joking when they say this.

You should not ever try to become a competitive Hearthstone player in the current climate, especially if you live in North America. Receiving points for the prelims is mainly a direct result of this points table.

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Keep this in a tab for future reference. Assumptions Before I present the analysis, here are the assumptions that I made skip past this section if you only want the data: The HCT Esports team cannot make any changes to the game.

This means that they have 0 influence in creating better ladder resets, removing counterqueueing, or inserting a tournament mode or pause feature into the game.

An open tournament round, on average, takes 1 hour. Most good players finish their rounds quickly, but they have to wait for the slowest match to catch up the farther they advance.

The people who qualified for prelims are a good sample of the population of people who are trying to do well in the HCT. This analysis can be further extended to include those people, but deciding the exact cutoff is ambiguous. The ladder placements that were overridden people who finished on two servers are an irrelevant statistic.

This is due to the way the data was input into the Blizzard PDF. The people who competed in multiple opens and qualified for the HCT have close to a proportional change in the overall open win percent.

In NA, you could have qualified by only reaching legend and winning 3 open cups. The people who qualified from APAC got the most points from their own server, despite having a lower overall total than EU. The main thing to talk about in this section is the overall abuse of the system, specifically by EU players.

As a player, it is your goal to have just enough points to be within the top 64 point earners, ideally with a cushion in case the predicted required points is an underestimate. Since there are 3 different months in which you can earn points, you would expect the trend to be something like this: Month 2 people want to pull ahead of the average so that they create a safety net and have room for error in the final month.

There will be a spike in points here. Month 3 will mostly be people playing safely due to success in Month 2. If a failure occurred in month 2, people will try extra hard to receive more points. This is due to there being about double the players who were able to accomplish decent success in months 1 and 2, so everyone needed to go crazy in order to have enough points after the final month see Table 2.

Does this mean EU is just that much better than the other regions? In my experience, it appears that there are just twice as many players that have the skill to qualify for the HCT. We can make an estimate of the total time spent in open tournaments using Table 4.

A better winrate does not necessarily net you more points:DIY Nukeproofing: A New Dig at 'Datamining' 3AlarmLampScooter Hacker. Does the thought of nuclear war wiping out your data keep you up at night? Don't trust third party data centers?

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An introduction to the analysis of the state championship

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Table Functions, Part 1: Introduction and Exploration